Dennis Sammut reflects on two
events that occurred last week that highlighted the opposite ends of the
situation around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Last week two events happened,
thousands of miles apart from each other, but both related to the situation
around the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. In their own way they represented the
extreme opposite ends of where the situation around the conflict and its
settlement is going, or can go. They reflected the two sides of the same coin.
On 11 November, at the
University of Oxford, dozens of diplomats, academics, NGO activists and others
gathered to discuss the Karabakh conflict and its resolution. In itself there
was nothing remarkable about this meeting. Many such meetings have taken place
in the two decades since a precarious cease fire halted hostilities between
Armenians and Azerbaijanis in what was then considered a remote part of the
post-Soviet space. Yet the Oxford Conference was significant in many ways.
First it brought together
people from all the elements within the various Armenian and Azerbaijani
stakeholders - the governments, those that oppose them, people from the
self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, and those who think that this Republic
should not exist at all and believe instead a solution based on reconciliation
of two communities amongst others. They were joined by NGO representatives both
local and European. The presence throughout the whole proceedings of the
European Union Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Ambassader Herbet
Salber, and diplomats from Turkey and Russia offered an important international
dimension to the meeting.
The second characteristic of
the meeting was the dignified way in which participants contributed to the
vibrant discussion. The idyllic surroundings of Oxford University helped, as
did the symbolism of the fact that the event was held on Remembrance Day - the
day when in Britain those fallen in war are commemorated. A two minute silence
in honour of those who died in conflict was observed at the start of the
meeting. Three Oxford Professors, Dan Healey, Roy Allison and Neil Macfarlane
helped to give the meeting academic substance. But what was most striking was
the dignity and lucidity with which Ambassador Khazar Ibrahim (Azerbaijan's
Head of Mission to NATO), Ara Margarian (from the Armenian Embassy in London),
and others such as Richard Giragosian, Masis Mayilian, Avaz Hasanov and
Orkhan Akbarov argued their cases, enabling participants to get a very good
understanding of the arguments of all the sides.
The third important feature of
the Oxford meeting was the great number of practical suggestions that came out
from the presentations of both local and international participants. The
expertise of Walter Kemp, Amanda Paul, Sabine Freizer, Craig Oliphant, Lawrence
Broers and others helped bring out many interesting ideas on what can be done
in the future. Practical ideas that are doable and that can be game-changers
even in the current climate.
Participants left the Oxford
meeting optimistic and energised. Few however had been able to reach their
homes before the news of the second event started coming through.
On Wednesday 12 November it
was reported that Azerbaijan had shot down an Armenian military helicopter
killing the three pilots. Azerbaijan says its troops were responding to an
attack; Armenia says that the helicopter was only participating in military
exercises. The incident happened on the line of contact that separates
thousands of soldiers from the two sides who are dug-in, in trenches, in a
manner not dissimilar to World War I. This incident is very serious because it
represents an escalation in the low intensity fighting that has been occurring
in the last two decades. This has never been a frozen conflict, despite the
1994 cease fire, yet this was the first time an aircraft was shot down. Mutual
recrimination has followed since. Armenia has promised reprisals, and daily
cease-fire violations continue.
The helicopter incident is the
latest in the serious of military actions that constitute a serious threat to
peace in the South Caucasus. Many argue that the status quo is unsustainable
and it is only a question of when, not if, a new war will start. In the
meantime, the efforts of the international community to unblock the impasse in
the peace negotiations have so far failed. The sides blame each other. Some
also blame the mechanism itself (the OSCE Minsk process); others the failure of
the sides to muster enough political will to embark on a serious peace process;
and others still the geo political situation. Fine arguments can be made for
and against all these possibilities, as indeed was done at the Oxford meeting.
For the three pilots killed the day after, as indeed for all the other
Armenians and Azerbaijanis that have died or suffered in this conflict, this is
not an academic discussion but a cruel reality.
Both the Oxford Conference and
the helicopter incident are part of the Nagorno-Karabakh reality -
the two sides of the same coin. One representing the rational and peaceful
approach that seeks to find a solution through discussion and mutual
understanding; the other that sees hope only in force and violence.
For many it feels as if the
Karabakh coin has been tossed in the air. Everybody has been waiting for years
to see which side the coin will fall on. Who will win the toss, peace through
dialogue or war?
It need not be like this, for
this is too important to be left to chance. A peaceful solution to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is possible and that is what everybody needs to
remain focused on.
Dennis Sammut is the Director of LINKS and is currently based at
Oxford University. He may be contacted at dennis@links-dar.org.
The Conference "The impact of international and regional developments on the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement process" was
organised by LINKS and the Russian and Eurasian Studies Centre at St Antony's
College, Oxford on Tuesday 11 November 2014. The conference was held in the
framework of the EPNK partnership with the support of the European Union. A
full report of the proceedings at the conference will be available on
commonspace.eu shortly.
Photo: Some of the participants on their way to
the Conference on Nagorno-Karabakh held at Oxford University on 11 November.
http://commonspace.eu/eng/news/6/id3121
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